The Process

4. The baseline – use of quantitative data

If licensing strategies are to be properly evaluated at the end of three years, a built-in system of monitoring will need to be established. Establishing an entirely new system will be an expensive and potentially difficult process. However, a wide range of agencies – from the local police force and accident and emergency department, to the Office for National Statistics – already collect alcohol-related data.

Utilising existing data will allow local authorities a better starting point from which to measure the impact of licensing changes in their area. This section outlines the available information and its limitations.

Introduction to alcohol-related data

Types of alcohol-related data

• Local data which directly link alcohol-related harm to licensed premises – e.g. the number of police call-outs to a particular club (see Licensed premises)
• Local data which directly indicate the level of alcohol-related harm in an area but does not associate it with licensed premises – e.g. the level of criminal damage in the area ( see Alcohol-related harm)
• National data about levels of alcohol-related harm extrapolated to the local area – e.g. General Household Survey data (see National figures)
• Data not directly related to alcohol but which may be indicative of the level of alcohol-related harm – e.g. the rate of teenage pregnancy in an area (see Indirect indicators).

The tables in this section set out the available data under these four headings. An additional fifth table gathers together specific data about young people and alcohol-related harm. The notes following each table offer more detailed information on some of these sources of data.

To make it easier to interpret the data, each table indicates which of the four (crime and disorder, public safety, prevention of nuisance and protection of children) the data is likely to relate to. The Outcomes Section of this toolkit will be useful when trying to interpret the data collected.

Things to be aware of

It will be necessary to work with the data providers (police, A&E, etc) to ensure that the system for gathering data is consistent over time. If, for example, a new recording system is introduced in A&E, the nature of the alcohol data collected may change. Similarly, if seeking comparisons with other areas, it will be vital to ensure that the data is collected in the same way and to the same definition.  

Licensed premises

There is a very limited range of quantitative data which links local alcohol-related harm to specific licensed premises. Furthermore, these sources may be hard to access or suffer from problems in interpretation.

One obvious source of data about licensing and alcohol consumption is the simple number of licensed premises in an area, the different types of licensed premises – e.g. restaurants, pubs or clubs and the ratio between them. The problem is that there is no evidence about how to interpret this data. Is there a ratio between, for example, the number of restaurants and the number of pubs and the likelihood of anti-social behaviour? Is there a relationship between the number of small off-licences and street drinking, especially by young people? It would be useful to see an exploration of this obvious source of information.

Notes on data i) Accident and Emergency – last drink data Some A&E departments (e.g. Rotherham) are gathering “last drink” data – the last licensed premises in which the patient was drinking – and feeding this back to community safety staff. This information must be treated with some caution. The location of the “last drink” may not be the location of the most drinks. However, it can be argued that, if the person was clearly intoxicated, the staff at the bar that sold the “last drink” should have acted more responsibly by refusing to sell drinks. ii) Ambulance service data The London Ambulance Service is a model of good practice in this area. They gather and publish information on the number of call-outs to alcohol-related (and other) incidents on a ward by ward basis across London.

Alcohol-related harm

A much larger range of data is available to provide direct indications of the level of alcohol-related crime and disorder in an area. However, this data will not tie the harm to particular licensed premises or precise geographical locations

Notes on data

i) Fire service data

ii) Drunkenness offences

Persons found guilty or cautioned for offences of drunkenness, by sex: England and Wales [6]

Comparative data have been gathered from two areas: South Yorkshire and the London Borough of Havering. In the six months from October 2001 to March 2002 there were 1118 drunkenness offences in the South Yorkshire area. This constitutes 4.7% of all recorded offences in the area. [7]  Havering has a different social profile to South Yorkshire but a very large pub- and club-based entertainment industry in the centre of Romford. The borough provided statistics for drunkenness incidents. These are reports of drunkenness rather than arrests and, therefore, their incidence is likely to be higher than the number of arrests. Incidents of drunkenness in Havering run at 446 per year for a population of 230,900. This equates to a figure of 1 incident per 500 of the Havering population, making the Havering incident figure the same as the South Yorkshire arrest figure. [8]

 iii) Police surveys

iv) Probation service data

v) Crime data comparisons

Other data on the link between alcohol and offences are set out below:

• Violence
  The statistics about the relationship between alcohol and violence are very clear. It will suffice to record a few of the key points:
  • It has been estimated that 40% of all violent crime and 78% of assaults are committed while the offender is under the influence of alcohol. [13]
  • Other studies have estimated between 50% and 80% of violent offences (including assault, rape and homicide) to be related to alcohol use. [14]
  • Research has found that alcohol is often consumed by both offenders and victims prior to a violent offence being committed. [15]
  • Alcohol Concern's report ‘Britain’s Ruin’ concluded that alcohol is a factor in 70% of all stabbing and beatings. [16]
  • One quarter of all adults claim to have been a victim of alcohol-related violence, in a pub (14%) or on the street (4%). [17]
  • The Home Office suggests that fear of alcohol- related violence or intimidation may well mean that large numbers of people avoid city centres on weekend evenings. [18]
  • The British Crime Survey 2000 showed that victims of violence judged offenders to be under the influence of alcohol in 40% of incidents. This rose to 53% for stranger violence – reflecting, perhaps, that this type of violence often happens near a pub or club. The percentage was lowest for mugging (17%), possibly reflecting the premeditated nature of the crime. [19]
    
• Arson
  National statistics do not record the relationship between alcohol use and maliciously started fires. [20]  However, the Home Office recognise that there has long been an association between alcohol and fire-setting, particularly given alcohol's powerful disinhibiting effect. Alcohol is also known to be an important factor in arson recidivism. [21]
• Domestic Violence
  Alcohol Concern's report ‘Britain’s Ruin’ concluded alcohol to be a factor in 40% of all recorded domestic violence incidents. [22] 
• Public Disorder, Criminal Damage and Vandalism
  The link between public disorder (and its more tangible manifestations, vandalism/criminal damage) is well known. It has been estimated that 88% of criminal damage cases are committed while the offender is under the influence of alcohol. [23]
  

• Accidents at Home
  It is suggested that alcohol may be a contributory factor in one third of all domestic accidents. [24]
• Alcohol and Accidental Fires
  A study of the causes of fire deaths found a raised blood alcohol level in 50% of the cases.
• Drownings
  Around 30% of all drownings are estimated to be alcohol-related. [25]
• Industrial Accidents
  A study suggested that 20-25% of workplace accidents are related to alcohol.[26]
  

Over the last 30 years there has been a reduction in the number of accidental deaths, but the downward trend seems to have halted in the 15-24 age group. Accidents remain the most common cause of death in people under 30, and are also a leading cause of injury and ill health. Accidental injuries account for 7% of NHS expenditure. [27] Data on accidents should usually be available via the Department of Public Health in the Local Primary Care Trust.

A&E Departments are the entry point for the bulk of accidents entering the health system. Research suggests that between 12 and 18% of all A&E attendances are alcohol-related and that at some periods of the week this figure may rise to 80%. [28]  A&E may, therefore, be a source of data on accidents, but this will be less reliable than public health data because the collection of data is not the A&E unit’s main priority.

National data about levels of alcohol- related harm which are extrapolated to the local area

Notes on data i) General Household Survey The General Household Survey gathers data on the various aspects of alcohol consumption in the UK. The statistic usually seen as the best indicator of the level of alcohol-related harm is the percentage of the local adult male population drinking over 8 units of alcohol or of the female population drinking over 6 units on one day in a week. The percentage of people drinking over this level can be extrapolated to smaller populations. For example, in the South East of England the percentage drinking over this limit on at least one day per week is 12%. This data has been applied to a borough/district council in the South East of England with a population of 115,665 people.  Of this population 93,342 are over the age of 16. If General Household Survey data trends are applied to the adult population, it can be estimated that 11,201 people will have drunk over 8/6 units on at least one day in the last week. This group of people is usually considered to consist of “hazardous drinkers”. However, a significant proportion of this group may never require alcohol services. The analysis can be made more accurate by allowing for the age make-up and gender balance of the area.

Data which are not directly related to alcohol but which may be indicative of the level of alcohol-related harm

There are a number of health statistics which, although not directly identifying alcohol problems, may indicate the presence of higher levels of alcohol use. Examples of these types of indicator are provided in the table below.

Notes on data i) Rate of diabetes These data should usually be available via the Department of Public Health in the Local Primary Care Trust. ii) Rate of coronary heart disease These data should usually be available via the Department of Public Health in the Local Primary Care Trust. Local mental health trusts will usually undertake a serious untoward incident or critical incident review in the wake of a suicide by a patient. This may provide useful information about the factors linked to alcohol-related harm. An alternative approach would be to follow the model proposed by the National Treatment Agency on Substance Misuse (NTA). The NTA is suggesting that Drug Action Teams (DATs) hold drug death reviews to learn lessons from drug-related deaths. This principle could be extended to alcohol-related deaths. iii) Suicide rate These figures will change over time and new studies will provide further detail. Links to updated information can be found on the Alcohol Concern website, available at www.alcoholconcern.org.uk

Young People

In the summer of 2004 the Home Office initiated a crackdown on illegal sales of alcohol to young people.  The figures released from the campaign show the scale of the problem, and underline how little has been done in recent years to enforce the law.  In the first month of the campaign, police sting operations in 646 licensed premises found that 51% of on-licences and 29% of off-licences were selling to under-age drinkers.  According to the Government’s own figures, drinkers under the age of 16 are drinking twice as much as they did ten years ago, with one in five 13-year-olds, and nearly half of 15-year-olds drinking alcohol on at least one occasion in the last week.

However, the following data sources will provide some indication of the level of problem, particularly if used in combination with other sources.

Notes on data i) National figures National figures on young people's drinking will change over time and new studies will provide further detail. Links to updated information will be found on the Alcohol Concern website, available at www.alcoholconcern.org.uk. However, recent research reports have shown the following: 14% of 12-13-year-olds, 33% of 14-15-year-olds and 62% of 16-17-year-olds reported drinking alcohol in the last week [32]; 10% of 12-15-year-olds drink at least once a week [33] and 84% of 12-17-years have drunk at some point in their lives [34]; Men under 21 who drink regularly are more likely to be offenders than the occasional or non-drinker [35]; Young males (16-24 years) are much more likely to be the perpetrators of alcohol-related violence than any other group [36]; Girls aged 12 to 15 who drink regularly are five times more likely to offend than those who drink less often [37]; 15% of 12-17 years olds have been involved in some form of anti-social behaviour as a result of drinking alcohol [38], and Offenders aged 12-17-years are more likely to be frequent drinkers (36%) than non-offenders (20%). [39] ii) Data on campaigns to prevent underage sales An example of a crackdown on underage sales is provided by Hampshire County Council Trading Standards. In the first half of 2003, Trading Standards received 65 complaints or tip-offs about shops selling alcohol to children, compared to 38 for the whole of the previous financial year. A number of off-licences were advised that complaints had been made against them and Hampshire Trading Standards then followed this up with test purchases using volunteers. These volunteers, all under the age of 16.5, were served alcohol in 15 out of the 24 shops visited. Trading Standards carried out 269 test purchases across the South East of England. In 118 cases (43%), sales were made to underage shoppers.